We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or “haircuts”. Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors ...

The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators, currently compiled by the U.S. Department of Commerce, is designed to measure the state of overall economic activity. The index is constructed as a ...

Darrick Hamilton and Barry Melancon. Hamilton will represent the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial ...

Darrick Hamilton and Barry Melancon. At its meeting on April 28, the NBER Board of Directors elected two new members: Darrick Hamilton and Barry Melancon. Hamilton will r ...

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Taking into account the recessionary effect of tariffs dramatically brings down the optimal unilateral tariff level derived in standard trade theory.

We argue that college students’ field-of-study choices significantly influence how economies respond to labor market disruptions. To do so, we develop and estimate a framework featuring ...

Amid rising global interest in state interventions, this paper examines how China’s infrastructure investments—a key macroeconomic policy tool—affect firm productivity. We focus on a policy that ...

We review the literature on the empirical characteristics of the global financial cycle and associated stylized facts on international capital flows, asset prices, risk aversion and liquidity in the ...

In such cases, statistical inference is complicated by the interdependence of economic outcomes across locations. A common approach to account for this dependence is to cluster standard errors based ...

Governments and firms often employ soft spending limits to restrict overspending while still allowing exceptions on a case-by-case basis. This paper studies a Medicare policy which capped per-patient ...

U.S. labor-force participation dropped by about 3 percentage points and remained below pre-pandemic levels three years later. Recovery varied across states, with slower rebounds in those more affected ...