William Bernstein has updated his classic The Intelligent Asset Allocator (2000) with a new book in his "Investing for Adults" series: Rational Expectations. Forbes.com writers are supposed to ...

The concept of "economically rational" expectation formation is developed for a regime in which the acquisition and use of some information sets are nonnegligible. The concept provides a middle ground ...

In this paper we consider how boundedly rational agents learn rational expectations. The assumption that agents are boundedly rational is made operational by imposing computability constraints on the ...

WHAT DO YOU EXPECT from your portfolio? A dozen years ago a securities industry survey asked individual investors what they would consider a "respectable" return from stocks in 2000. The median number ...

Sometimes navigating the financial markets is like attempting to solve a jigsaw, except the image on the box is always shifting. When the future is unknown, how do investors make decisions? The idea ...

While many parts of the U.S. economy have slowly chugged along, the housing market recovery has recently been a consistent bright spot. After the values of homes seemingly bottomed out in early 2012, ...

With apologies to Charles Dickens, his novel about an English orphan who rises to wealth, deserts his friends, and ultimately becomes humbled by his hubris and arrogance might one day double as a plot ...

This year's winners of the Nobel Prize in economics have played key roles in developing what we now call modern macroeconomics. But we wouldn't blame Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims if they feel ...

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