The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

Stocks are surging on Wall Street after China and the United States announced a 90-day truce in their trade war. They agreed to take down most of their tariffs that economists warned could start a recession and create shortages on U.